Cousins Reloaded: Paapa Paandu...

Cousins Reloaded: Paapa Paandu... All, This is the last warning for you. From now on, no body will Paapu as Paapu. She will be called 'Paapa Paapu'. lol

Dear Blog Readers,

It is very unfortunate that I will not be in a position to provide calls on a weekly basis aswell. Due to acute shortage of time I am taking this drastic step. I hope a lot of you have made money based on my calls. Thank you very much for all the support. I hope I can come back and resume providing calls at the earliest. Lets wait for that day.

With lots of love and regards,
Vijay

Market Outlook and Trading calls for week ending 28Sep07

Outlook for week ending 28Sep07:
Last week was eventful and markets climbed to all time highs against everybody’s expectations. This up move will definitely not sustain. The reasons for that are
1. The markets have moved up without much participation from mid cap and small cap stocks.
2. It was only the Relaince group stocks which took the indices higher.
3. The Nifty futures has created a huge gap of 83 points at 4557 which has to be filled up shortly. The same is the case with Bank Nifty which has created a gap of 128 points at 7097.

Right now there is no trigger for the markets to come down. This Thursday is F&O expiry as well. I expect the markets to remain sideways or probably inch up slowly till the result season starts in the third week of October. Use the opportunity to exit long positions.

Futures Trading Calls:
Buy AB Nuvo at lower levels for target 1600 within one month.
Buy Bharti Airtel at lower levels for target 975 within a month’s time.
Buy Escorts for target 150 within a month’s time.
Buy TCS if closes above 1040 for target 1150 within 15 day’s time
Buy Union Bank at lower levels for target 170 within a month’s time.

Sell Relaince Industries 2280 september call option and pocket the entire premium.
Sell Unitech 340 september call option and take home the entire premium.

Cash Market Calls:
Buy NEPC India at current levels with a 6 month’s view for target 43.
Buy Hero Honda at current levels with 1 year’s view for target 940.

Points to Note:
1. All calls are for short term trading and should ideally hit the target within 2-4 weeks. Any calls other than short term calls will be specifically mentioned.
2. The calls provided on day 0 holds good for the next 4-5 trading sessions if entry price does not cross the mentioned levels on day 1.

Disclaimer: The recommendations provided would be purely on my personal opinion and doesnot reflect any fund house interest or my personal holdings. I would not be responsible for the loss in trades undertaken based on my recommendations.

Outlook for the week ending 21Sep07

Outlook for week ending 21Sep07:
It is extremely difficult to predict the direction of the markets in this week with the fed coming up with the decision on the rate cut. All the analysts are of the opinion that the fed will definitely cut the rate when it meets on the 18th of September. Last week the markets across the world have firmed up on this expectation. However, the Indian markets gave up substantial gains in the second half of Friday making the technical charts look weak. Most of the stocks have shown signs of reversal. The banking stocks appear to be weakening. It is advisable to remain in cash for at least 60% of your portfolio. The political situation is also not improving with new issues coming up.

The problem with the Northern Rock in UK is another example of sub prime concern. Remember that if the fed decides to cut the rate, it is the acceptance from them that there is a huge problem in the sub prime market. On an immediate reaction the markets might bounce back but will gradually drift down. If the fed decides not to cut the rate then, it is against everybody’s expectations and the markets might fall. However the Indian markets are not much affected by the sub prime problem and I do not foresee Nifty coming down below 4365 on a worst case scenario. For this week the Nifty should face resistance at 4530-4615-4650 and should take support at 4425-4365-4260.

Futures Trading Calls:

Sell Bank Of India if closes below 239 for target 222.
Sell Bata if closes below 174.50 for target 167.
Sell Educomp if closes below 2865 for target 2725.
Sell GE Shipping if closes below 224 for target 211.
Sell IOB if closes below 137 for target 128.
Sell Kesoram Industries at current levels for target 500.
Sell Neyveli Lignite if closes below 94.50 for target 88.
Sell Reliance Capital if closes below 1375 for target 1310.
Sell Rolta if closes below 444 for target 430 and 410.
Sell Sesa Goa at current levels for target 1980.

Cash Market Calls:

Buy Aftek at lower levels with stop loss 68 for target 150 in 6-9 months.

Points to Note:
1. All calls are for short term trading and should ideally hit the target within 2-4 weeks. Any calls other than short term calls will be specifically mentioned.
2. The calls provided on day 0 holds good for the next 4-5 trading sessions if entry price does not cross the mentioned levels on day 1.

Disclaimer: The recommendations provided would be purely on my personal opinion and doesnot reflect any fund house interest or my personal holdings. I would not be responsible for the loss in trades undertaken based on my recommendations.

Market Outlook and Trading Calls for the week ending 14Sep07

Outlook for week ending 14Sep07:
This week the markets are going to open week and are expected to recover all its losses and probably will be in the positive territory by the end of the week. It is no rocket science to tell that the markets will open with a gap down on Monday morning. He question is what after that. I expect the markets to recover either on Monday itself or from the second half of Tuesday. I do not expect the Nifty to come down below 4365 in the initial panic and not below 4420 later on. The first resistance on the upper side is at 4570. If nifty sustains above 4600 then expect a new high within this settlement. I have given below a few reasons as to why the markets will not fall to a new low or enter the bear phase. For this week the Nifty should face resistance at 4550-4600-4650 and should take support at 4440-4363-4300.

The reasons for the markets not to enter the bear phase is:

The Indian market are bullish and can make a new high any time. Let me justify myself.
1. As far as the political situation goes, the left just cannot afford to pull out of the coalition because, if the mid term polls happen there is a good possibility that congress might win it with majority.
2. Regarding the sub prime concern, Bush and Bernayke will not let their biggest economy crumble so easily. They will definitely take steps curtail shortfalls. In any case, India is least effected by the sub prime crisis. If the FIIs pull out money the domestic money is sufficient to hold up our markets.
3. Technically, the Indian markets failed to close below its 200 DMA in the recent fall which is a long term bullish sign.
4. The 15 DMA has cut 30 DMA from bottom which is short term bullish sign.
5. The strengthening rupee has helped Indian companies shop abroad and the finance ministry's encouragement to do so is welcome.
6. The sectors most affected by strengthened rupee are export and IT. IT can anyhow survive by increasing the billing rates. The big exporters can survive by smartly booking forward contracts and the small exporters will get assistance from the government to compensate for their exchange loss (to some extent if not fully).

All these points make me believe that the markets are strong and all falls or lowers levels should be used to buy stocks with a long term view. However, In the immediate short term I expect correction till 4350 and not below that. Use this opportunity to cover short positions and build long term long positions. Divis Lab and Praj Industries are looking very bullish for the targets mentioned below.

Futures Trading Calls:

Buy Divis Lab at lower levels with stop loss 1150 for target 1400.
Buy Praj Industries at lower levels with stop loss 199 for target 235.
Buy Bank Nifty at lower levels with stop loss 6700 for target 7100.
Buy Bongaingaon Refinery at current levels with stop loss 55.75 for target 61.

Sell Adlabs film with stop loss 509 for target 465.
Sell Cipla if sustains below 179 for target 167.
Sell Cummins India at current levels with stop loss 405 for target 380.
Sell Dena Bank if sustains below 63.75 for target 61.

Cash Market Calls:

Buy Duncan Agro if closes above 13 for target 18.

Points to Note:
1. All calls are for short term trading and should ideally hit the target within 2-4 weeks. Any calls other than short term calls will be specifically mentioned.
2. The calls provided on day 0 holds good for the next 4-5 trading sessions if entry price does not cross the mentioned levels on day 1.

Disclaimer: The recommendations provided would be purely on my personal opinion and doesnot reflect any fund house interest or my personal holdings. I would not be responsible for the loss in trades undertaken based on my recommendations.

Outlook for the week ending 07Sep07

Outlook for week ending 07Sep07:
This week is expected to be volatile and Nifty can easily move around 400 points. Technically, the markets are on a bounce back and we have to wait and see if the higher levels can be sustained. Nifty has a strong resistance at 4595 and 4645. It has a strong support at 4165. Sector wise Banking, IT and steel are looking good. Automobile stocks are looking for a bounce back. It is advisable to exit long positions at higher levels. This entire month is expected to be volatile. No clear trend is available till Nifty closes above 4645 or below 4165 on the weekly charts. The US markets are closed on Monday and Fed chairman ben Bernayake’s statement of ‘will act as needed’ is not helping the cause as it still leave the investors guessing about the cut in interest rate. Internally, it is also required to watch for the political scene as to how it will shape up. Nifty will face resistance at 4532-4595-4645 and will take support at 4363-4245-4165 on a weekly basis.

Futures Trading Calls:

Buy Bank Nifty at current levels for target 6810 and 6950.
Buy CNX IT at current levels for target 4920.
Buy Nifty at current levels for target 4500 and 4570.
Buy Allahabad Bank if sustains above 93.50 for target 98.50
Buy BEML at current levels for target 1275.
Buy Colgate Palmolive if sustains above 396 for target 412.
Buy Divis Lab if closes above 1210 for target 1400.
Buy Escorts if closes above 98 for target 107.
Buy Financial technologies at current levels for target 2550.
Buy HTMT if closes above 398 for target 445.
Buy India Infoline at current levels for target 720.
Buy PNB if sustains above 493 for target 530.
Buy Reliance Capital at current levels for target 1280.
Buy Relaince Industries at current levels for target 2040.
Buy Tata Steel at current levels for target 715.

Cash Market Calls:

Buy Greenply Industries if sustains above 210 for target 235.
Buy NIIT Tech if sustains above 317 for target 340 and 357.
Buy South Indian Bank if sustains above 158 for target 168.
Buy Tata Elxsi if sustains above 325 for target 360.
Buy Tech Mahindra if sustains above 1318 for target 1385.
Buy Tulip IT at current levels for target 920.
Buy Welspun Gujarat if sustains above 251 for target 275.
Buy Yes Bank if sustains above 196 for target 220.

Points to Note:
1. All calls are for short term trading and should ideally hit the target within 2-4 weeks. Any calls other than short term calls will be specifically mentioned.
2. The calls provided on day 0 holds good for the next 4-5 trading sessions if entry price does not cross the mentioned levels on day 1.

Disclaimer: The recommendations provided would be purely on my personal opinion and doesnot reflect any fund house interest or my personal holdings. I would not be responsible for the loss in trades undertaken based on my recommendations.

This is my first post on a weekly basis. There are a few changes on the template of the postings. The NSE and BSE closing prices will not be provided. The FII figures and the advance decline ratio will not be provided as well. The FII figures do not provide any clue or trend as FIIs are not able to change the trend or are not strong enough to control the direction of the market. There is a change in the way the calls has to be read as well. Please read the 'points to note' section before trading on any calls. All the very best trading and hope all of you benefit from the calls provided.

Dear Blog Readers,

I am writing this message with deep regret. Unfortunately due to certain changes on the personal front I am unable to continue posting the trading calls on a daily basis. However, I will continue to post the calls on a weekly basis to the possible extent. I request the readers to bear with me for this. I do understand that it will cause a lot of inconvinence to lot of blog followers. Therefore, readers who have open positions based on my calls can send me a mail at vijay.setty@gmail.com and I will respond at the earliest.

From now on weekly outlook will be posted before the opening bell on every monday. I once again regret the inconvinence.

Market Outlook and Trading Calls for 29Aug07

Nifty: 4320.70 +18.10 Points Sensex: 14919.19 +76.81 Points

FII Activity:
Cash Segment: 390.20 crores net buyers
Index Futures: 143.35 crores net sellers
Stock futures: 14.99 crores net buyers

Advance Decline ratio: 674:432

Outlook for 29Aug07:
The fall I was expecting in yesterday’s trading did not come, but it is definitely there today. The markets will open extremely weak and can recover as the day progresses. Nifty futures can come down up to 4200 in the opening session. The August futures settlement is just 2 days away and this will take the markets up from the lows of the day today. Technically the gap created by Nifty futures has been reduced to insignificant levels. For today, the Nifty should take support at 4300-4240-4218 and should find resistance at 4363-4398-4440.

Futures Trading Calls:

Buy IFlex if sustains above 2060 for target 2100.
Buy Sesa Goa at lower levels with stop loss 1770 for target 1930.

Sell Dena Bank if sustains below 56.10 for target 53.
Sell IPCL at current levels with stop loss 379 for target 360.
Sell MTNL at current levels with stop los 138.50 for target 130.

Cash Market Calls:

Buy Salora International if sustains above 139 for target 151.

Points to Note:
1. All calls are for swing trading and should ideally hit the target within 5-6 trading sessions. Any calls other than swing calls will be specifically mentioned.
2. The calls provided on day 0 holds good for the next 2-3 trading sessions if fails to sustain above/below the mentioned levels on day 1.

Disclaimer: The recommendations provided would be purely on my personal opinion and doesnot reflect any fund house interest or my personal holdings. I would not be responsible for the loss in trades undertaken based on my recommendations.